November 25, 2011
Housing Market Outlook for Greater Vancouver
Below is a chart showing the sales of detached and attached homes from 1995 to 2011. The 2011 figures are based on 10 months actual sales from January to October, 2011 and 2 months projected sales for November and December. As can be seen from the chart, the market for home sales appeared to have peaked in 2005.
If a home sales trend line is plotted for Greater Vancouver based on home sales date since 1995, would point to a steady home sales deline at a rate around 3.5% a year since 2005.
Based on market trend and momentum, home sales in Greater Vancouver for 2012 could be heading for a sales figure around 30,000 homes. But, any severe external shock from the US, Europe or Asia could bring the sales number down below 30,000.
On the pricing front, some small decline in home prices was noted in Richmond, BC the past 3 months. The housing market in Greater Vancouver had turned soft since May, 2011. We do not expect the next 2 months to contribute to any meaningful recovery in sales number. View homes for sale in Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley and Chilliwack.
Will the market become active again early next year?
Some housing pundits are predicting home prices to go down the next 2 years. Most are predicting a moderate single digit drop in price. Home owners who bought their investment properties before 2005 can expect to do well if the property they bought are single family homes. Condo buyers who bought after 2006 are not expected to make much money if they sell at today's prices.
Sales activities for 2012 should be fairly active, but home sellers will have to adjust their prices according to the market. It is a buyer market now in Richmond with inventory hovering around 8.43 months supply of homes.
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